Luck of the Irish

The Influence of Perspective & Mindset

Having read Nassim Taleb's Incerto series, I am more aware of our innate tendency to underestimate the likelihood of unforeseen events occurring. This does not, however, increase the extent to which unknown variables can influence any decision in life. Unknown unknowns represent things that we are neither aware of nor understand. Examples include the 2020 global pandemic, unless you are Bill Gates, for whom this was more of a "known unknown" since he largely predicted this threat. Another example is Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which was unlikely mentioned in any business planning meetings in the preceding months. Accounting for these events and being realistic about what you know, what you don't know, and what is outside of your control are important traits that lead to a more comprehensive approach to problem-solving.When creating financial models, analysts typically use bull, base, and bear cases to bucket general assumptions leading to various outcomes. These models rarely account for unforeseen influences and are typically focused on a small number of variables. Terminal value multiple and discount rate are two influential variables on the outcome of a valuation model. These are known unknowns, as you're aware that these variables influence the outcome, yet you are unaware of their values. It may be more accurate to include a black-swan level scenario and its opposite, each weighted as small as a 1% probability or whatever would be appropriate. It is crucial to realize that much of what you are hypothesizing about is out of your control and that countless unknown factors can influence the outcome.Being half Irish, I often contemplate what "luck" means to me. From picking four-leaf clovers growing up with my brother to somehow acing a test I thought I bombed, I wondered how much luck played a role in these outcomes. Some people are quick to say they lost because they were unlucky, while winners might say luck was the biggest factor in winning. While this is true on occasion, the lucky winner may just be humble, and the unlucky loser might be making an excuse. You know best how much luck plays a role in any outcome, but it is almost impossible to tell with certainty, as there are always many variables at play.Over the past few years, I've experienced what I perceived as continuously being lucky for several days or weeks on end. We have a tendency to think that long streaks of good luck tend to precede an abrupt change of fate. While sometimes difficult, it is beneficial to be aware of your perspective when faced with a series of positive outcomes you feel may have been the result of good luck. Your good luck never has to stop. Break yourself from the mindset that tells you that bad luck follows good luck. When you catch yourself looking for something to go wrong after something went right, this is when you must snap back to reality.